Nothing focuses the mind like surprises!
Discover the reason why Predictions are a powerful instructional technique.
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
The Silkworm Affair, Operation Desert Storm, February 24, 1991
Lieutenant Commander Michael Riley, HS Gloucester, noticed a blip approaching the USS Missouri. At the time, he was not sure if the blip was an incoming Iraqi missile (Silkworm) or American fighter jet A-6. Nevertheless, he fired two Sea Dart missiles.
The firing was a success since the blip did represent an Iraq Silkworm missile that was destroyed due to Riley’s action. Upon immediate investigation, Riley said he wasn’t sure why he fired the missiles; he just knew the blip was a Silkworm missile. After a full investigation of the firing, it was discovered that Riley’s decision was correct due to the differences in the radar sweeps of blips between a Silkworm missile and an American fighter jet A-6.
Why are predictions a successful teaching tool?
The answer involves dopamine, the pleasure giving neurotransmitter.
I share the story above, taken from the outstanding book How We Decide by Jonah Lehrer, to show that predictions/intuition can be astonishingly insightful, even if the origins of those predictions/insights are obscure.
Scientists have discovered that human brain cells are programmed to generate predictions about what will happen and then measure the differences between their expectations and the actual results. In his book, Lehrer writes that if the prediction is accurate, that particular cellular connection is reinforced by receiving a squirt of dopamine and the brain feels the pleasure of being correct.
However, if a cellular prediction proves false, the dopamine neuron immediately stops firing. The brain then experiences a negative emotion and learns from the experience.
The cortex (the thinking part of the brain) takes immediate notice since nothing focuses the mind like surprises!
Use of Predictions in Classroom
Judy Willis believes that the use of predictions as a teaching technique is highly effective because of the highly effective, pleasure deriving actions of the neurotransmitter dopamine.
Willis, an authority on brain research regarding learning and the brain and correlations of this research to best teaching practices, posits that when students experience the dopamine pleasure of a correct prediction (answer, or decision) in class, they are intrinsically motivated to persevere through the challenges and apply effort to reach the next level of learning.
The increased dopamine release in response to the satisfaction of a correct response reinforces the memory of the information used to answer the question, make a prediction, or solve a problem. The brain favors and rewards actions that release more dopamine, so the involved neural memory circuit become stronger and is favored when making similar future choices, Willis continues.
What Goes Up Must Come Down – Even in the Brain
Just as dopamine levels rise in association with correct predictions and pleasure, a drop-in dopamine is associated with an incorrect prediction resulting in a degree of unpleasantness.
The brain responds negatively to mistake recognition by altering the memory circuit to avoid repeating the mistake and experiencing another drop in the dopamine pleasure, Lehrer submits.
What is interesting about this system is that it is all about expectations. Lehrer explains that dopamine neurons constantly generate patterns based on past experiences; if this, then that. This allows the brain to anticipate what will happen next.
The brain then compares these predictions to what actually happens. Once an action is learned, the dopamine cells monitor the situation. If everything goes according to plan, the dopamine neurons secrete a little burst of excitement and the brain is happy. But if the expectations are not met, the dopamine cells send out a signal announcing the mistake and stop releasing dopamine.
Willis suggests the value of the brain’s dopamine disappointment response is associated with brain changes through neuroplasticity; the ability of neural networks to extend, prune, reorganize, correct, or strengthen themselves based on acquiring new information, obtaining corrective feedback, and recognizing associations between new and prior knowledge. Changes in the neural circuits develop so that the brain is more likely to produce a correct response the next time and avoid the pleasure-drop consequences of making a mistake.
The brain’s cells constantly measure the mismatch between expectations and outcome and they use inevitable errors to improve performance, that is failure is eventually turned into success
This is an essential aspect of decision-making. If we cannot incorporate the lessons of the past into our future decisions, then we are destined to endlessly repeat our mistakes.
This is a critical cognitive talent. Dopamine neurons automatically detect subtle patterns, and then they assimilate all the data that we cannot consciously comprehend. And then, they come up with a set of refined predictions about how the world works, Willis advances.
A Short You Tube on the Power of Predictions
Riley’s dopamine neurons started to anticipate a consistent sequence of events. As a result, the dopamine neurons in Riley’s brain neurons were surprised when there was something that didn’t fit the pattern. The cells instantly responded to the surprising turn of events and altered its rate of firing passing this electrical message to the cortex.